There's Been an Awakening, Have You Felt It?

SPOILER FREE!

There’s been a tremor in the force.  It’s been quite some time since the Sith of the FOMC have gained an upper hand in the battle versus the rebellion.  Jedi Master Yellen is likely to finally succumb to the power of the Dark side and this will be a day long remembered.  It will see the end of ZIRP and perhaps soon see the end of the “recovery".   

OK, OK.  There’s a lot going on this week.  We have the FOMC decision tomorrow and the new Star Wars movie Thursday.  I’ll get a little serious here for a minute.  I’ve yet to suggest this in my near 2.5 years here at Equity Prime, but if you are at all an interested party, I’d highly recommend putting on CNBC just before 2:00 tomorrow to see the rate decision unfold.  Whatever they do, it will likely illicit a entertaining response, and I just think this is something you probably wouldn’t want to miss.  That said, we’re now creeping back to that 2.32 level and if you floated after the BLS blow out (as I suggested on the 4th) and locked around 2.16, you’re a pretty happy padawan.  If you held on too long and through yesterday’s blood bath, remember that thing about bulls & bears????? I know a few of you reached out to me and I’m glad you did.  I think we did well for those borrowers.  Anyway,  unless the Fed comes out really hawkish tomorrow (which the data doesn’t support), I’m not sure things could get much worse from here.  2.32, maybe 2.37.  If I had a gun to my head, err light saber, I’d say we settle under 2.32 tomorrow, but I say that with about 65% certainty.  I’d play this down the middle, with a protect bias because if they shock everyone as Draghi did, it could get uglier.  Our worst case is if they don’t reinforce #oneanddone and/or #lowerforlonger.

#ZIRPawakens  

Philip N. Mancuso, Chief Investment Officer

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